President Trump heard something a few days ago that he hadn’t heard before. He was booed by an audience he had called to hear his latest, uh, whatever.
Boos at a Trump rally?
Who else was listening?
Who else in the Republican Party was listening?
Maybe we’re reading too much into the event. But there have been, all along, questions about how tight Donald Trump’s grip on the party will remain the longer he is out of office.
It’s doubtful many people left the rally and left Trump because he suggested it might be a good idea for people to get their COVID shots. It was only a tepid endorsement but it was the first time he had encouraged his followers to do what he had secretly done before leaving the White House.
Boos. At a Trump rally.
And on this quiet street, these thoughts quietly began to emerge.
The competition for Roy Blunt’s to-be vacated Senate seat has drawn several Republican early entrants, the biggest names of which seem determined to prove they are the most like Trump. They are betting Trump will be the dominant force in the 2022 elections that he claims he will be.
But there are some other Republicans who are holding their counsel. And it might be wise for them to do so. August, 2022 is a long ways away, politically. The world can take a lot of turns in the next twelve months.
But beside that there’s the issue of mathematics.
Let’s go back to the 2016 presidential primaries. We wrote just before Missouri’s primary that year that earlier state primary voters “seem to favor ANYBODY BUT” Trump with the ABT vote through Super Tuesday that year looking like this:
Iowa 76% Anybody But Trump
New Hampshire 65
South Carolina 67
Nevada 54
Alabama 57
Alaska 66
Arkansas 67
Georgia 61
Massachusetts 50 (although in the total vote, he lost by about 20,000 out of 631,413 cast)
Minnesota 79
Oklahoma 72
Tennessee 61
Texas 73
Vermont 67
Virginia 65
Kansas 77
Kentucky 64
Louisiana 59
Maine 67
Hawaii 58
Idaho 72
Michigan 64
Mississippi 53
Trump had cracked the 40% support level only six times in 22 opportunities up to that time. By the time of the Missouri vote, only four GOP candidates remained in the running. Eight candidates on the ballot had dropped out but their names could not be removed. In 2016, Trump got 40.84% of the Missouri votes. Ted Cruz got 40.63 (and he did not ask for a recount). John Kasich and Marco Rubio combined for 16.2%. The rest was scattered among the withdrawn candidates or for “uncommitted.” The fact is that in Missouri, as in the other states, the majority opposed Trump.
We now have five big-name candidates trying to convince voters they have the shortest political umbilical cords linking them to the former president.
Might there be a moderate Republican or two just quietly watching the internecine warfare among the COTs (Children of Trump)? And might we see a moderate Republican candidate step forward about the first of the year who can win the Republican primary with 35% of the vote while the five (so far) COTs divide the 40%—assuming Trump still has a solid-enough 40% following in the party by then?
COTs go 25-20-10-5-5% and the moderate polls 35% and moves on to November.
Memo to the COTs in the aftermath of the Alabama boos: Be nervous. Somebody not like you might be lurking. And one person who looks good to the 60% can beat the five of the 40.
Or maybe we’re just reading too much into that rally the other day.